Bitcoin is expected to crash further... scenario of a 50,000 USD target collapse
Amid the spread of extreme fear in the virtual asset market, Bitcoin's price has sharply declined, and major investment banks have continued to lower their price targets, increasing the weight on the possibility of further declines. The combination of fund outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and macroeconomic uncertainty is expanding selling pressure across the entire market.
On the 12th (local time), according to Bloomberg News, Jeffery Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered (SC), lowered the target price for Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of 2026 from the previous $150,000 in his latest report, marking a 33% reduction. SC had previously cut the target price from $300,000 to $150,000 just three months ago, meaning this is a consecutive downward adjustment.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was traded in the 65,000-dollar range, declining by more than 2% compared to the previous day. Ethereum also fell below the 2,000-dollar mark, dropping to the 1,900-dollar level. The Fear & Greed Index, which reflects investor sentiment, recorded 8, entering the "extreme fear" zone.
In the report, SC pointed to the macroeconomic environment and ETF fund outflows as key factors behind the market decline. Despite signals of U.S. economic slowdown, expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, leading to a contraction in risk asset preference, according to the analysis. Kendrick, the responsible person, diagnosed that there is still a possibility of further decline to the 50,000 USD level before Bitcoin rebounds.
Capital outflows from physical ETFs are considered a factor that increases downward pressure. According to Bloomberg data, about $8 billion in funds have been net withdrawn from U.S.-listed Bitcoin physical ETFs since October last year. The report estimates that the average purchase price of ETF investors is around $90,000, explaining that many investors are in a loss zone at the current price level, which could lead to continued selling pressure.
The overall market size has also shrunk significantly. The total market capitalization of virtual assets has decreased by about 2 trillion dollars compared to the peak in October last year. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a risky asset, as its recent gains have not kept up with the rise in major stock indices.
Forecasts for Ethereum have also been revised downward. SC lowered its year-end 2026 target price for Ethereum from the previous 7,500 dollars to 4,000 dollars. It predicted that in the short term, it could fall as low as the 1,400 dollar level.
Kim Myung-sun, reporter kms@etnews.com
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