AST SpaceMobile Targets $150M–$200M Revenue by 2026 as Satellite Expansion Speeds Up

Earnings Call Insights: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q4 2025

Management View

Abel Avellan, Founder, Chairman & CEO, highlighted that 2025 was a pivotal year for AST SpaceMobile as the company transitioned into a revenue-generating business. He noted that the company raised over $3.5 billion in capital and reported revenue of over $70 million for the full year. Additionally, they signed over $1 billion in minimum committed revenue. Avellan emphasized the successful launch of BlueBird 6, described as "the largest ever commercial communication array deploying load at orbit," and announced the company’s aim to scale its constellation from "initial commercial activation to start of commercial service with mobile network operator partners in key markets like United States, Europe, Japan, Saudi Arabia and other key strategic markets like the U.S. government."

Avellan added that 2026 will see the deployment of "45 to 60 satellites into loaded orbit by the end of this year, with current expectations closer to 60 satellites ready to ship and 45 satellites in orbit." He also mentioned that manufacturing capacity had reached "six satellites worth of micron and phase array per month."

The company expanded its partner ecosystem with definitive commercial agreements, including Verizon in the U.S. and stc Group in Saudi Arabia, and "received a prepayment of $175 million in 2025 indicative of the ambition we both share." Partnerships with Orange, Telefonica, CK Hutchison, Taiwan Mobile, and Vodafone were also highlighted.

Scott Wisniewski, President & Chief Strategy Officer, reported that "2025 was the year we activated our revenue engine with record revenue of over $70 million, achieving the upper end of our revenue guidance." He noted that the company delivered 15 commercial gateways to MNO partners in the second half of 2025.

Andrew Johnson, Executive VP, CFO, Chief Legal Officer & Director, stated that "2025 was best described as the year of scaling at AST SpaceMobile." He commented that the company has 29 Block 2 BlueBird satellites in various states of production and is on target to complete the assembly of 40 satellites equivalent of microns during the first half of 2026. Johnson also emphasized strong liquidity, stating that "Our cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash as of December 31, 2025, was approximately $3.9 billion."

Outlook

Johnson projected that "we expect revenue to at least double versus 2025" and provided 2026 revenue expectations of "$150 million to $200 million." He added that "we estimate that our adjusted operating expenses, excluding cost of revenues, will be in the range of approximately $70 million to $80 million" for Q1 2026, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat from Q4 2025, "somewhere between $350 million to $425 million." The company expects to "achieve our target of deploying 45 to 60 satellites into loaded orbit by the end of this year."

Financial Results

Johnson reported that "for the fourth quarter, we incurred non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses of $95.7 million versus $67.7 million in the third quarter." Fourth quarter capital expenditures were "approximately $407 million versus approximately $259 million for the third quarter of 2025." Fourth quarter revenue was "$54.3 million, primarily driven by gateway hardware sales and various U.S. government service milestone achievements." Full year 2025 revenue was disclosed as "$70.9 million, representing the top end of our 2025 revenue guidance range of $50 million to $75 million."

Q&A

Griffin Boss, B. Riley Securities, Inc., asked if future satellites might be built for exclusive government use. Avellan responded, "the satellites are really designed to manage all these applications in a single platform." Boss also inquired about patents related to thermal management and data center potential. Avellan elaborated on the technology's capability, saying, "That's a particular technology that enables a lot of things... it opened a lot of other opportunities on the TAM that we have."

Colin Canfield, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., questioned revenue mix. Wisniewski explained, "as we get this platform on a full year run rate... that's how we got to that 2027 goal number." Bryan Kraft, Deutsche Bank AG, asked about manufacturing pace and satellite readiness. Avellan stated, "We are on target to at least be ready to ship this year 60 satellites with a minimum of 45 into orbit." Louie Dipalma, William Blair, asked about service levels at launch. Avellan said, "as we enable more spectrum... you see the peak data rates keep enhancing." Christopher Schoell, UBS, referenced services gross margins. Wisniewski said, "our flow-through margins and our operating leverage, we think, over time, could contribute to an EBITDA margin in the 90% area or higher."

Sentiment Analysis

Analysts focused on growth execution, satellite deployment cadence, revenue mix, and manufacturing pace, with a tone that was inquisitive but not overtly skeptical. Management maintained a confident and forward-looking tone, frequently using language such as "we expect," "we are confident," and "we are the only company capable."

Compared to the previous quarter, analyst sentiment remained steady, with continued focus on pace of execution and risk mitigation. Management’s tone remained assured, with increased emphasis on operational scale and financial flexibility.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

Management increased full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of $150 million to $200 million, compared to the previous year’s $70.9 million. Satellite manufacturing and launch cadence goals were reiterated, but Q4 operating expenses and capital expenditures increased substantially from Q3. Analysts’ questions continued to focus on execution and scale, mirroring prior quarter concerns but shifting toward operational leverage and margin potential. Management confidence was consistent, with added focus on technological differentiation and broadened partnership announcements in Q4.

Risks and Concerns

Management noted that "cost per satellite estimates are subject to fluctuations based on dynamic geopolitical factors, which could impact our costs." The achievement of revenue plans remains "subject to several contingencies, including the successful launch and deployment of Block 2 BlueBird satellites related to U.S. government applications, contractual milestone achievements, critical gateway equipment sales, and service revenues in connection with the activation of our commercial service." Analysts raised concerns about manufacturing pace, launch cadence, and the mix between government and commercial revenue streams.

Final Takeaway

AST SpaceMobile entered 2026 with strong momentum, substantial liquidity, and a robust pipeline of contracted revenue commitments. With a clear path to at least double revenue in 2026 and concrete plans to scale satellite deployment, management signaled confidence in operational execution, technology leadership, and commercial traction across both government and mobile network operator markets. The company’s focus on expanding production capacity, deepening strategic partnerships, and maintaining financial flexibility positions it to capitalize on large market opportunities through the coming year and beyond.