"Hybe falls below earnings forecast... 'This year, when BTS returns, it's different'" [Today's report]

Despite recording its highest sales ever, Hybe received a "half A-grade" as profits sharply declined, but the market has instead raised its expectations for this year's performance.

On the 13th, Lee Gi-hoon, an analyst at Hanahope Securities, analyzed that "Hive spent more than 130 billion won on restructuring and costs for the debut of a new group last year in the second half of the year," and "in the fourth quarter, it recorded the largest impairment loss in its history, resulting in performance below the consensus."

In reality, HYBE's consolidated sales increased by 18% year-on-year to 2 trillion 649.9 billion won in 2025, expanding its scale. However, operating profit fell to 49.9 billion won due to the burden of costs from new artist investments and business restructuring. The company explained that one-time costs were significant during the process of new artists' debut and the reorganization of North American operations, and that about 20 billion won in impairment losses were reflected in non-operating income in the fourth quarter due to the asset revaluation process in the management sector.

Securities companies believe that performance trends will change from this year. Hyundai Securities estimated that the operating profit in 2026 would reach about 500.6 billion won, upgrading its forecast for BTS's full group activities and world tour. It also expects that sales from BTS's comeback could reach around 1.2 trillion won. According to the researcher, "This year, in addition to BTS's comeback, momentum is expected from megahit intellectual properties (IP) such as Weverse, which successfully turned profitable, as well as Cortis and Cats Eye. Since the BTS World Tour is expected to be reflected at least until the second quarter of next year, there is not much concern about performance for the time being."

He also pointed out the new idol group "Cortis" from Big Hit as a potential new mega IP. It is judged that their debut album has achieved an exceptional performance, making it possible to hold a tour this year. The researcher evaluated, "The sales of their debut album could reach 2 million copies by the time of their second quarter comeback," and "At six months after their debut, they achieved a ranking of fourth place, following Stray Kids, Seventeen, and ENHYPEN, based on last year's album sales per album."