Prominent cryptocurrency media editor: "Bitcoin will drop even more from here."
Analysts have said that Bitcoin's price may be forming the bottom of this cycle around $50,000. Liam "Akiha" Light, editor-in-chief of cryptocurrency media Crypto Slate, stated this on the 12th (local time), diagnosing that although fears of a recession have spread in recent markets, the possibility of the global economy entering a collapse phase this year seems relatively low. He explained that Bitcoin's unique supply and demand structure, mining revenue pressure, and ETF fund flows are key factors determining the lower end of Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin has entered a correction phase since reaching an all-time high in October last year. Some market observers have speculated that further declines would occur if this year's U.S. recession or global stock market crash were to accompany it, but the analysis was pointed out to be overly simplistic.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts world economic growth at the beginning of the 3% range this year. The World Bank presented a growth rate in the mid-2% range, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also expected growth in the late 2% range. The common point is "slowdown," but not "collapse."
In the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. entering a recession by the end of 2026 remains in the low 20s. Although the risk of a recession has not completely disappeared, it is not considered a central scenario.
Employment indicators are representative metrics that reflect the public's perception of the economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the annual net new jobs in 2025 were revised downward to 181,000. This is a significantly lower figure compared to the previous estimate. However, the unemployment rate in January 2026 was 4.3%, and net new jobs added in the same month were 130,000. It is evaluated that although the job market has slowed down, it still maintains an expansion phase.
The burden on businesses and households is increasing. According to S&P, the number of business bankruptcies in the United States reached 785 in 2025, the highest since 2010. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. household debt reached $18.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, and credit card balances increased to $1.28 trillion. The rate of delinquency for 90 days or more also showed an upward trend.
These indicators show that the economy is gradually facing pressure, but it is difficult to see this as a full-scale financial crisis. The analysis categorized this environment as a "situation with friction but not collapse."
What Lee emphasized in the article is that Bitcoin does not necessarily move along with global crises. It is explained that price declines can originate from Bitcoin's own structure.
The first variable is the miner revenue structure. As of the end of January, miners' daily revenue was approximately 37 million dollars, and the proportion of transaction fees in this amount did not even reach 1%. This shows that the network is still heavily dependent on block rewards.
When mining fees are low and prices fall, miners are more likely to sell their holdings to cover operating costs. Such mechanical selling has repeatedly occurred during the bottom formation process in previous cycles.
The second is the flow of physical Bitcoin ETF funds. Large net outflows occurred in mid-January and late January, and the cumulative outflows since the beginning of the year have exceeded 1 billion dollars. ETFs are an indicator showing the direction of institutional funds. During periods when funds are flowing out, the buying buffer during a downturn becomes weaker.
According to Light, if this supply deterioration continues, Bitcoin could face additional downward pressure even without a macroeconomic shock.
The analysis suggested that the range of 49,000 to 52,000 dollars could be a potential cycle bottom range. Light explained that this price range has a similar nature to the range where strong supply and demand shifts occurred in previous cycles.
The market bottom is often formed after a significant portion of leverage liquidations and forced sales have been resolved, rather than at the moment when fear is maximized. It is a structure where new buyers enter the market during periods when mining sell pressure, ETF fund outflows, and short-term investor cuts overlap.
The analysis did not rule out geopolitical variables or the possibility of unexpected external shocks. However, it emphasized that, considering current macroeconomic indicators and forecast data, this year is more likely to show a "moderate slowdown" rather than a "comprehensive collapse."
According to the explanation, if Bitcoin's next decline occurs, it is more likely due to supply and demand adjustments and structural pressures within the cryptocurrency market rather than the collapse of the global financial system. In this context, Light pointed out that around $50,000 is a turning point where new buying pressure could enter.
As of 11:18 AM Korean time on the 13th, Bitcoin is trading above the 66,000 USD level. If it drops to 50,000 USD, it would be a further decline of nearly a quarter.
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